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Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures
Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
  • Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
  • Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost the Aussie, but they’re unpredictable
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question.
Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.
submitted by dailymarketsignals to u/dailymarketsignals [link] [comments]

Basic Question: how to calculate Implied Rate?

Hi guys,
I am looking to improve my understanding on bonds, in particular - gilts.
Several questions if I may, based on website data:
  1. Why is 1M, 3M, 6M is not updated live? - is that because there are no bonds maturing or are they just not traded..? Seems to be only at 7am...
  2. This image from yesterday's news article shows (same as above?) figure of implied rate and has (a calculated?) implied BP. I understand that Implied BP is effectively 0.716% out of 0.75% possible and thus 84% probability of a 0.25% hike, but how exactly is 0.6706 is converted to be 0.716%?
  3. From 1M bonds here, how can I calculate that Implied BP rate..? The bond matures on 20 Aug, so I assume it has X days on 0.5% rate (until BoE decision) plus Y days on 0.716% rate (discounted from 0.75 as not completely certain). I've tried to reverse-calculate, but just cannot figure it out. Any ideas how to do it?
Thanks and sorry for basic questions, trying to get my head round these!
submitted by igurdon to investing [link] [comments]

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